On average around 69% of billpayers say they are happy with their provider. Significantly higher than that average is Octopus, scoring 84%.  Suppliers with lower satisfaction results were EDF Energy, on 61%, OVO Energy on 61%. and Scottish Power on 62%.

A pool of more than 3,700 home energy users were asked last September to rate their supplier first for overall satisfaction, and then for its customer service delivered.   The regulator commissioned the research in collaboration with Citizens Advice.

For customer service, suppliers scored on average 62%.  Octopus again beat that industry benchmark, achieving 76% for its service.

Again EDF, on 54%, Scottish Power on 55%, and OVO on 57%, all came up short, serving their customers worse than rivals.

Top reasons given by customers unhappy with levels of service they received were

• not being able to contact their supplier at the time they needed (37%),
• not feeling they were being listened to (34%) and
• length of time it took to resolve their query (34%)

Overall satisfaction with customer service as reported by real users fell, the regulator notes, from 66% at the end of 2022 to 62% in the latest research.

Ofgem says it will continue to publish its supplier-specific data as part of its commitment to improve transparency in helping customers make more informed decisions on supplier choice.

In December the regulator announced new rules designed to improve customer service standards, including requirements for suppliers to be easier to contact and provide proactive support for vulnerable customers, and people struggling to pay their bills.

Under these rules, energy companies are already required to prominently display their Citizens Advice Star Rating for customer service satisfaction.

Tim Jarvis, Ofgem’s director general of retail, commented:   “Transparency is crucial to allow energy users to make informed choices, and we are determined to give customers the information they need so they can choose a supplier that works for them.

“We have already seen improvement to fix issues we identified in our deep-dive review of customer service in 2022.

“This latest data is a reminder that there is still work to be done, and publishing company-specific data adds another incentive for suppliers to keep pace with their rivals – or risk losing customers.”

Early last year the regulator’s Market Compliance Review into customer service raised severe or moderate weaknesses at twelve energy retailers.   It says suppliers have listened, with all making noticeable improvements.

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Among 2,000 homes polled for the company, 56% of billpayers fear for their ability to meet bills at unprecedented levels, a rise of 13% on last winter.

With Ofgem ordering a raise this quarter in its energy price cap, domestic bill payers have more than doubled online searches year on year for advice on energy efficiency.  Quarter against quarter,^.web searches rose by 53% .

With typical dual fuel bills now double what they were two years ago, EdF’s research has convinced it to commit £185 million more to efficiency advice and related measures.

EdF is upping by £103million this year’s spending on its ECO and Great British Insulation Schemes.  Improving EPC ratings of an 14,000 homes with new energy saving kit, is at the heart of the initiative.   The supplier calculates savings will amount to between £700 and £800 per year.

Since Christmas 2022, the company’s research tells it 36% of all UK households have invested in at least one bill-saving step. Most popular among householders taking action have been underfloor insulation, installed by 57%, followed by radiator panels, adopted by 53%.

With 77% of households believing that more needs to be done to support vulnerable customers, and a fifth worrying about falling into arrears, EdF says its investment will offer eligible customers living in a home with a low EPC rating a package of free energy-saving measures and heating improvements to help bring down bills permanently and improve their homes EPC rating.

EdF managing director for customers Philippe Commaret commented: “People are concerned about keeping their homes warm in a cost-effective way. Tackling the energy efficiency of people’s homes is the number one way we can help to reduce bills and we’re not choosing to stand still or wait.

“Our extra £103m on the ECO and Great British Insulation Schemes this year which will deliver savings to thousands of vulnerable customers.”

EdF is also launching a new Home Efficiency Hub, a tool where customers can create a free tailored plan to boost home energy efficiency. Links to qualified installers are included. The plan also sets out any grants or funding that may be available, saving customers energy and time, helping them reduce their emissions.

Checks for eligibility can be made here.

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That’s the forecast of analysts Cornwall Insight, in a latest prediction reflecting the labrynthine global interdependencies of energy economics.

Growing volatility in international wholesale energy markets has already pushed up forecasts for the 2024 UK price cap for home supply, or the Default Tariff Cap, as regulator Ofgem terms it.

The analysis firm says latest predictions place a typical dual fuel consumer’s January energy bill at £1,923 per year, based on Ofgem’s new official yearly usage benchmarks of 2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas. A near-negligible rise to £1,929 is foreseen in April 2024.

While already predicted to increase in January, the cap had been expected to fall below the current £1,834 typical bill rate for the rest of 2024, Cornwall notes.

Figure 1: Cornwall Insight’s Default Tariff Cap forecasts using new Typical Domestic Consumption Values (dual fuel, direct debit customer)

Source: Cornwall Insight

Uncertainties such as Israel’s war with Hamas, and the disruptions in Finland and Australia have put paid to those hopes. Since September, forecasts for the cap have nudged up by as much as 6%  Best current forecasts have the price cap remain above the current level at least until the end of the year.

Cornwall notes that Britain’s increasing reliance on internationally sourced liquid gas, as it moves away from Russian supplies, has made it particularly susceptible to flutters in the LNG market.

The ramifications of events in Gaza, which caused production to cease at key Israeli gas fields, saw lower gas output to Egypt where it is processed into LNG, impacting supply and prices. In Australia, strikes have cut production, reducing LNG exports and affecting some of the country’s main assets.

While unrelated to the Gaza conflict, Finland’s Balticconnector experienced interruptions which raised questions about the potential for similar damage elsewhere.  Global wholesale markets have reacted as they rationally should, Cornwall notes, once again pushing up prices.

“The uncertainty over potential disruption going into winter will raise more questions over the supply-demand balance as temperatures start to decline”, in Cornwall Insight’s view.

Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at the respected firm, observed:

“The jump in price cap predictions since September has once again highlighted the vulnerability of UK energy prices – and customer bills – to geopolitical events. The Russian invasion of Ukraine demonstrated there is a delicate balance in the global energy market which can easily be disrupted by unexpected events, it looks as though the current situation is repeating that pattern.

“The government needs to take steps to proactively limit the impact that such situations have on the UK’s energy market, and already stretched households, rather than reacting to events as they occur. Stop-gap measures such as social tariffs and one-off payments are helpful, but they are not a long-term solution”, Lowrey advised.

“While the UK will never be entirely protected from global price increases, reducing the country’s reliance on imported energy and prioritising sustainable, domestically sourced energy will help protect the country from international energy shocks, and work to stabilise prices over the next decade.”

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Last winter the NG-ESO ran its first two batches of national trials for its DFS, designed to gauge how responsive home power users are – or could made to be – to messages that time-shifting will save them money.

As part of the experiment, the NG-ESO and participating suppliers advertised the cash advantages to homes who switched heavy usage devices such as washing machines to run overnight or outside times of peak power demand.

Results of the trials, as analysed on behalf of one battery vendor, were released this morning.  Kit retailer SolarEdge is heralding their insights as a ‘game changer’ in the promotion of home storage of electricity.

Unlike ‘manual turn-down’ participants, owners of SolarEdge’s Home Battery earned financial rewards for their stored battery power during peak hours, without having to reduce their electricity usage.

Consumption monitoring company Smart Metering Systems (SMS) used SolarEdge’s smart control technology to charge participants’ batteries remotely ahead of each DFS event and then maximize power export to the grid over the hours of the DFS event’s duration.

Autonomous control removed the need for homeowners possessing Solar Edge batteries to tweak the times when they ran high-consuming household devices.

The company’s analysis finds that participating battery owners earned up to ten times more financial rewards than participants paid by the DFS for manually tweaking – “time-shifting” – usage by big household appliances.

The highest financial reward received by a battery owner during a single DFS event was £25.60, against an average reward received of £6.52. In comparison, UK manual turn-down participants in the DFS trails received only £0.90 or so per DFS event on average.

In the six DFS events which SolarEdge batter owners participated in, the highest total reward achieved by a battery participant was £100.61. Projections by Smart Metering Systems suggest that if the DFS service becomes an enduring year-round service, domestic battery owners could earn over £300 per year.

The National Grid benefitted too from the DFS’ cuts in demand, through power flows re-scheduled to times when the grid could accommodate them.

Analysts found that participating battery-equipped homes were up to six times more effective in trimming back grid demand than UK homeowners manually twiddling appliances’ knobs. On average, battery-enabled participants exported 2.7 kWh to the grid per DFS event, compared to a reduction of 0.5 kWh or less posted by the average manual turn-down participant.

Mark Hamilton, managing director for FlexiGrid at analysts SMS, concluded: “Introducing automation into the DFS has game-changing potential to amplify significantly the volume of homeowner participation next winter and in future DFS events, and subsequently boost the impact of grid stabilization using home batteries.

“The ability to remotely schedule participants’ batteries to autonomously charge ahead of each DFS event and maximize power export to the grid”, said Hamilton, “means homeowners can earn passive income while consuming electricity as normal.

“This is in contrast to the DFS participants required to actively change their behaviour to earn energy bill savings. This was a key factor in the drop-off of participation we saw as the national DFS scheme went on.”

From home storage vendor SolarEdge, its Western Europe regional manager Amit Larom oberved: “We’ve seen first-hand the significant value battery-enabled flexibility response delivers to homeowners and grid operators alike.

“Home batteries enable homeowners to lower their energy bills and increase their savings by leveraging excess solar during evenings when electricity tariffs are at their highest.

“Participating in demand response programmes can further help improve the economics of purchasing a home battery”, said the SolarEdge salesperson.

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Home rooftop systems beneath 10kWp in capacity are being installed at their fastest rate since 2016, energy consultants NTT Data calculate, using government statistics.

Domestic solar accounts for an estimated 27% of Britain’s 15.6GWp of PV systems now generating.

Homes adding solar panels made up 73% of Britain’s new PV capacity last year. Domestic additions for the half decade since 2016 had averaged only 43%.

But without speeded up connections delayed by thermal and voltage constraints everywhere on Britain’s creaking grid,  NTT say 2050 may yet become an impossible deadline for the UK to attain Net Zero.

Run-rate installations of home PV lagged the 25% mark for five years between March 2016 and last June, the consultants note.

Capex write-offs favour oil and gas

Planning rejections for solar fields also ran in 2022 at their highest rate for five years, NTT notes further drive expansion on homes’ roofs.

Initiated by Theresa May’s government to help home generators sell unwanted power, Smart Export Guarantee (SEG) tariffs offered by retailers now reward homeowners only with a meagre of 13% of current wholesale prices.  These stand at around 37.2p per kWh.

That economic logic prompts PV owners to direct excess energy towards home batteries or home-charged family EVs, rather than selling and it back to the grid. Soaring retail tariffs increase the incentive to store excess power, not sell it.

Eduardo Fernandez, NTT Data’s head of gas, power & water observed: “Energy microgeneration has graduated from theory to practice: due, in part, to rapidly increasing energy prices.

“Renewed investment in solar installations by homeowners is driving the decentralisation of the energy grid, ramping up the pressure for local network transformation.

“Small installations now make up a quarter of the UK’s national solar capacity. That puts pressure on DNOs to make drastic changes to their technology stack.

“Homeowners are now paid an average of around 4.9p/kWh to deliver excess electricity back to the grid. Wholesale prices paid by electricity companies are almost 10 times this, and the current energy cap is 9 times the price paid”.

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The move stands to save consumers a notional £426 annually, even as the cap replaces the Energy Price Guarantee, the government’s emergency subsidy. Since October that has pegged a hypothetical average household’s annual bill at £2,500 a year.

Ministers and the regulator stressed that the cap’s reduction will mean customers on default tariffs paying less for energy for the first time since global gas prices rose in late 2021, driven by world demand rebounding after Covid lockdowns.   Sanctions on Russian gas after the February 2022 Ukraine invasion further tightened the upward screw.

Falling wholesale prices of gas have enabled the regulator’s decision.

It also heralds likely renewed competition between suppliers, offering competitive fixed price deals for the first time since the energy crisis began.

Business and enterprise users remain cushioned only by the Energy Bills Discount. Its support was revised downwards in April from the more generous Energy Bill Relief scheme.

At its peak, Ofgem’s domestic cap had stood at £4,729.  With the new cap still more than double its pre-Covid levels, the regulator warned though that many households would struggle to meet even lower bills.

Ofgem chief executive Jonathan Brearley said more focus will be needed for government, the regulator and the industry to support the most vulnerable groups this winter.

He added: “After a difficult winter for consumers it is encouraging to see signs that the market is stabilising and prices are moving in the right direction.

“However, we know people are still finding it hard, the cost-of-living crisis continues and these bills will still be troubling many people up and down the country. Where people are struggling, we urge them to contact their supplier who will be able to offer a range of support, such as payment plans or access to hardship funds.

In the medium term the Ofgem boss foresees no return to retail energy prices paid before the crisis first bit in 2021.

“We believe it is imperative that government, Ofgem, consumer groups and the wider industry work together to support vulnerable groups.

Anti-poverty campaigners stressed that the reduction left many homes still facing eat-or-heat dilemmas every day.  The charity National Energy Action said it would still leave 7.5 million households in fuel poverty, unable to heat homes adequately.  In October 2021, that figure stood at 4.5 million.

Citizens Advice, identified in law as representing consumers on energy prices, was equally wary. Its head Dame Clare Moriarty pointed out the cap’s cut to £2,074 is nearly double what average domestic bills were as recently as 18 months ago.

“The fall in the price cap provides some desperately needed respite”, said Moriarty. “But energy bills will still be unaffordable for millions of households”.

“For many, life is getting worse, not better. Year on year we’re breaking records for the number of people struggling with energy debt.  It’s clear more government support will be needed in the future for struggling households.”

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Since the start of winter, the default tariff cap, or price cap, and the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) have left the government-supported Standard Variable Tariff (SVT) lower than almost all energy tariffs.

That circumstance imposes a chokehold on the savings which households can make by switching, Cornwall Insight’s Kate Mulvany observes in a research note.

Monthly account moves between suppliers have collapsed as a result, from just under half a million every month in 2019, to only 85,000 last year.

In April, government support for domestic through the EPG bills rises to £3,000.

With wholesale fossil feedstock prices paid by generators now shrunk to or below levels seen before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine twelve months ago, it’s on the cards, says Cornwall, that suppliers will soon offer fixed tariffs attractively competitive against the government-capped price scales.

Although increased market competition naturally depends on stable wholesale markets, Cornwall sees early indications that suppliers could launch more competitively priced tariffs within weeks.

“Current market conditions suggest there may be room for households to have a wider engagement in the energy market than they have in recent times”, says the note.

“There are many variables still in play, and it is difficult to know how fast and how far energy bills will fall”, Mulvany cautions.

“The Market Stabilisation charge adds another level of complexity, as while it may safeguard against supplier collapse it is likely to drive up the cost of energy deals offered by suppliers”, she perceives.

“If suppliers’ costs decrease and government-supported rates remain relatively high, it is likely we will see a significant revival in reasonably priced energy plans, with millions of households finally able to take advantage of the savings they have been missing out on for years.

Bill-payers scared or intimidated into inertia by recent tariff turmoil will also influence market outcomes, Cornwall believes.

“To see rising switching we are also relying on consumers engaging with an energy market which many are understandably wary of. It is possible some households may choose to stick with what they know instead of choosing cheaper options.”

More on Cornwall’s Insight here.

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Now in its eighth year, Greg Jackson’s privately held international mega-investor says solar installation helps it create nearly 200 UK jobs, as it targets 3,000 roofs this year, starting in southern England and the Midlands. A fast ramp-up is promised.

A nationwide brand recognised from repeated TV advertising,  and with 4.9 million retail accounts following its absorption last month of failed supplier Bulb, Octopus ranks third among UK energy retailers, behind British Gas and E-on.

Octopus is backing its battery and on-roof instals with what it claims are Briain’s best rates for buying homeowners’ unstored electricity, made from light.  Its standard tariff of 15 pence per kWh to buy householders’ exported power is three times higher than rivals’ offerings, the firm says.

More rewarding still is a variable alternative, a floating export tariff linked to market prices for wholesale electricity.

Agile Outgoing links a customer’s “spilled” generation via Kraken, the firm’s fulfilment platform, into realtime prices seen on trading markets. Over the twelve months to last September, customers on this tariff were paid 34p per kWh on average, the firm claims.  Some payments peaked at £1.29 per kWh.

Plenty of beak, but Zero bills

Octopus says its stable of installation technology and proprietary know-how now allows some homes to exist free of any energy cost. By installing the technology trio of on-roof panels, a suitcase-sized in-house battery and a heat pump, the firm says houses can become ‘Zero Bills’ properties.

‘Zero Bills’ is Octopus’ own certification. It means homeowners pay nothing for their own consumption. A pilot in Essex saw 22 eligible dwellings made by Ilke Homes sold with the option of incurring ‘Zero Bills’.  The partners aim to swell that total to 10,000 homes by 2030.

Octopus views venturing into Britain’s now booming on-roof PV installation scene as filling in a gap. Its Energy Services division already connects up home EV chargers, air-source heat pumps and smart meters.

Octopus Energy Services CEO John Szymik commented: “Given the success we have had in scaling and installing huge swathes of smart, green home energy tech, we are champing at the bit to begin installing the last piece of the puzzle, solar photovoltaic.

There’s a clever cephalopod on my roof

“If more homes in the UK produce clean, green solar energy, we will be able to accelerate the energy transition and bring down system prices for everybody by lowering system costs”, Szymik went on.

“In true Octopus style, we’ll focus on reducing solar installation times down to record levels, hoping to soon make solar panels affordable for everyone.”

Interested customers should register an interest here octopus.energy/homesolar.

Observers see Octopus’ ambitions today for southern homes as another upward surge in the PV installation business’ notorious ‘solar-coaster’.

Over a decade ago, British Gas was the first big generator to venture into direct solar installation on domestic roofs.

Its Hampshire-based PV division rode the short-lived installation boom in 2010, buoyed up by Feed-in-Tariffs then paying 40 pence and more to homeowners for every kWh they generated, plus more for any unwanted power released to the grid.

After alarmed Whitehall officials used England’s courts to sabotage the runway demand they had themselves created, the Centrica offshoot turned away from depressed homes instals, concentrating instead on PV systems for commercial clients.

A publicly funded subsidy supporting home-scale beneficiaries for at least twenty years, the Feed-in Tariff closed for new registrations in March 2019.

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